Italian Epidemiologist: Many Questions but No Clear Answers on Covid19
Because of my background as an epidemiologist and Cochrane researcher, and my involvement in the H1N1 outbreak, I often get stopped in the street, or in a bar, or the gym, and asked about covid-19. The questions are usually: how long does it take for the symptoms to manifest? How can I avoid it? Is it serious? I live in Italy, the third most hit country in the world, my youngest children go to school locally, and my grandchildren are due to come over to Italy soon to see us. The tone of my answers is usually dismissive. I explain the nature of influenza-like illnesses, the fact that it is a syndrome, there is not a single cause, and the gallery of “culprits” increases as time goes on. But it is mysterious, it comes and goes. That is why it is called influenza, as our forefathers ascribed its waxing and waning to the influenza degli astri, or “influence of the planets.” Meaning they had not a clue as to where and how it started and where it went. We are still clueless. There is, however, one question that my Italian friends often ask me to which I have no answer: how is this different from the seasonal influenza-like illnesses we are used to? I cannot answer my nagging doubts, there does not seem to be anything special about this particular epidemic of influenza-like illness.