Foresight, the Government’s futures thinktank, today published the final report of its Global Food and Farming Futures project to explore the increasing pressures on the global food system between now and 2050.
The report argues for fundamental change to the global food system and beyond, highlighting the decisions that policy makers need to take today, and in the years ahead, to ensure that a global population rising to nine billion or more can be fed sustainably, heathily and equitably.
A compelling case for urgent action
In his foreword to the report, Professor Sir John Beddington, the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of the Foresight programme, explains the impetus for the project:
“The case for urgent action in the global food system is now compelling.
“We are at a unique moment in history as diverse factors converge to affect the demand, production and distribution of food over the next 20 to 40 years.
“The needs of a growing world population will need to be satisfied as critical resources such as water, energy and land become increasingly scarce. The food system must become sustainable, whilst adapting to climate change and substantially contributing to climate change mitigation. There is also a need to redouble efforts to address hunger, which continues to affect so many.
“Deciding how to balance the competing pressures and demands on the global food system is a major task facing policy makers, and was the impetus for this Foresight Project.”
Professor Beddington outlined the failings of our current food system and the need for action:
“The Foresight study shows that the food system is already failing in at least two ways. Firstly, it is unsustainable, with resources being used faster than they can be naturally replenished. Secondly, a billion people are going hungry with another billion people suffering from ‘hidden hunger’, whilst a billion people are over-consuming.
“The project has helped to identify a wide range of possible actions that can meet the challenges facing food and farming, both now and in the future.
“With the global population set to rise and food prices likely to increase, it is crucial that a wide range of complementary actions from policy makers, farmers and businesses are taken now. Urgent change is required throughout the food system to bring sustainability centre stage and end hunger. It is also vital for other areas, such as climate change mitigation, conflict, and economic growth.”
Action for a sustainable end to hunger
These two headline failings of the current food system are amongst the report’s main findings, along with the need for wide-ranging action to address converging threats:
- Threat of hunger could increase: Efforts to end hunger internationally are already stalling, and without decisive action food prices could rise substantially over the next 40 years making the situation worse. This will affect us all – as more of the world suffers from hunger social tensions will increase, as will the threat of conflict and migration. Wider economic growth will also be affected.
- The global food system is living outside its means, consuming resources faster than are naturally replenished. It must be redesigned to bring sustainability centre stage: Substantial changes will be required throughout the food system and related areas, such as water use, energy use and addressing climate change, if food security is to be provided for a predicted nine billion or more people out to 2050.
- There is no quick fix: The potential threats converging on the global food system are so great that action is needed across many fronts, from changing diets to eliminating food waste.
Challenges and opportunities for change
Identifying the “unprecedented confluence of pressures” on the food system over the next 40 years, the project has analysed five key challenges for the future:
- A. Balancing future demand and supply sustainably – to ensure that food supplies are affordable.
- B. Ensuring that there is adequate stability in food supplies – and protecting the most vulnerable from the volatility that does occur.
- C. Achieving global access to food and ending hunger. This recognises that producing enough food in the world so that everyone can potentially be fed is not the same thing as ensuring food security for all.
- D. Managing the contribution of the food system to the mitigation of climate change.
- E. Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world.
Important areas for change to address these challenges include:
- Minimising waste in all areas of the food system: An amount of food equivalent to about a quarter of today’s annual production could potentially be saved by 2050 if the current estimate of global food waste is halved.
- Balancing future demand and supply in the food system: This could include helping businesses to measure the environmental impacts of food so that consumers can choose products that promote sustainability.
- Improving governance of the global food system: It is important to reduce subsidies and trade barriers that disadvantage poor countries. The project’s economic modelling shows how trade restrictions can amplify shocks in the food system, raising prices further.
The challenges identified in the report show an urgent need to link food and agriculture policy to wider global governance agendas such as climate change mitigation, biodiversity and international development. Without this link a decision in one area could compromise important objectives in another.
Ministerial reaction
Sponsored by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Department for International Development, the report has been welcomed by minsters in these and other Government departments.
Defra and DfID plan to respond to the report by championing a more integrated approach by governments and international institutions to global food security, alongside other international and national action.
Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman stressed the Government’s commitment to global food security:
“We need a global, integrated approach to food security, one that looks beyond the food system to the inseparable goals of reducing poverty, tackling climate change and reducing biodiversity loss – and the UK Government is determined to show the international leadership needed to make that happen.
“We can unlock an agricultural revolution in the developing world, which would benefit the poorest the most, simply by improving access to knowledge and technology, creating better access to markets and investing in infrastructure.
“To fuel this revolution, we must open up global markets, boost global trade and make reforms that help the poorest. Trade restrictions must be avoided, especially at times of scarcity. And we must manage price volatility by building trust and cooperation – and in particular by creating greater transparency around the true levels of food stocks.”
International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell described the report’s relevance as food prices rise again:
“With one seventh of the world’s population still hungry, this report is a clarion call to arms. The food price crisis in 2008 increased the number of people suffering from hunger by 150 million. Today reports of increasing food prices once again fill the news – and it’s clear from this new study that price volatility is only set to increase in the future making further food price spikes inevitable.
“Internationally, those with the least spend the largest proportion of their income on food, so food price shocks hit the poorest hardest and can have long term impacts on their health. Britain is already working to tackle malnutrition, improve agriculture, and get new research into the hands of the poorest people. Steps taken now and pushed through over the next few decades to stabilise global markets, reduce volatility and prioritise agriculture will have a disproportionate effect on ensuring food security for a predicted nine billion people by 2050.”
David Willetts, Minister for Universities and Science, focused on the role of research in tackling the issues identified in the report:
“Scientific evidence is fundamental to good policy-making. Robust research helps us plan for the future and prepare for a wide range of important challenges including climate change, terrorism, health and in this case, food security.
“I welcome Foresight’s latest report on the future of global food and farming. The UK is world-leading in this area of scientific research and I’m impressed that this study has not only looked at the issues in such depth but also pulled together such an impressive range of global experts.”
Article link: http://sd.defra.gov.uk/2011/01/global-food-and-farming-futures/
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